Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments
In recent “learning to forecast” experiments (Hommes et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations, and dampened fluctuations. We show that a simple model of individual learning can explain these different aggregate outcomes within the same experimental setting. The key idea is evolutionary selection amo...
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In recent ‘learning to forecast’ experiments with human subjects of Hommes, et al. (2005), three different patterns in aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent price oscillations and dampened price fluctuations. These different aggregate outcomes are at odds with a representative agent who is fully rational or employs a single adaptive learning rule. We...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1945-7669,1945-7685
DOI: 10.1257/mic.4.4.35